We evaluated the quality of flare activity forecasting in active regions
based on spectral-polarization observations at RATAN-600 in the wide
range of radio waves (Fig.1). The method is aimed at short-term 1-3-days flare
forecast. Proton events are considered as part of a general flare issue.
Making a reliable prediction is a complex process due to the multiparameter
and multidimensional system of variations of plasma parameters and many
nonlinear relations. In our case, we use radio astronomical estimations
of preflare situation occurrence based on a detailed analysis of the
intensity spectrum and polarization of the active-region radiation with
high sensitivity by the radiation flux.
The prediction criterion is based on the ratio of radiation fluxes from
an active region at two wavelengths of 3 cm and 8 cm
(F3cm/F8cm≥0.8)
for the radiation level F3cm>10 s.f.u.
(1 s.f.u. = 10-22Wm-2Hz-1).
We used the Tanaka-Enome criterion for
systematic forecasting at RATAN-600
and, owing to higher sensitivity by the polarized radiation flux to the
s.f.u. level, we significantly improved the prediction efficiency for
individual active regions (see Fig.2).
Bogod V.M., Kurochkin E.A., Peterova N.G., Shendrik A.V. (SAO RAS)
jointly with Svidsky P.M. (Institute of Applied Geophysics Russian
Committee on Hydrometeorology), Everstov N.P. (ITMO University).
Published:
Bogod V.M., Svidsky P.M., Kurochkin E.A., Peterova N.G., Shendrik A.V.,
Everstov N.P. On Methods of Predicting Solar Activity Based on Radio
Observations. Proceedings of the XX Conference "Solar and Solar-Terrestrial
Physics-2016", St.-Petersburg, October 2016.
Contact - Bogod V.M.
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